Turkey, Touchdowns, and Market Trends: Setting the Stage for 2026

This week’s short insight builds on last week’s long look-back blog post, offering a view of what might be in store next year.

By now, you’ve hopefully made the annual pilgrimage to your favorite grocery store(s) to gather all the Thanksgiving fixins. I can’t wait for the aromas of Thursday afternoon, time enjoyed with family, watching football, and maybe sneaking in a nap. Soon enough, once the leftovers are sealed, investors will turn their attention to Black Friday sales and Cyber Monday demand. Faith, family, food, and fulfilling Christmas wish lists… that’s what the season is all about, right?

Even before the doors close on Day 1 of the holiday shopping season, market-watchers can get near-real-time clues from outfits like Adobe Analytics, Mastercard SpendingPulse, Amazon, and Salesforce. By most accounts, 2025 will be a record year for holiday spending. And it appears Wall Street analysts have already penciled in robust retail sales.

According to FactSet, S&P 500 earnings-per-share estimates have climbed to an eight-month high. With 95% of Q3 revenue and profit results already tallied (including heavy hitters like NVIDIA and Walmart), it’s becoming clear that corporate America is quietly setting the table for a hearty 2026. The ingredients are there: solid household consumption numbers (despite near-all-time-low consumer sentiment), record corporate profit margins, and (of course) the AI gravy train.

’Tis also the season when year-ahead outlooks begin to blanket Wall Street like fallen leaves. Research firms produce slide decks and glossy booklets of charts and catchy titles. Helpful as they are, they rarely predict the future. Nobody saw COVID coming in 2020, and almost all experts were negative on markets this time three years ago, just as one of the best bull runs was gaining steam.

What’s our 2026 stock market prediction? We don’t have one. Instead, our focus is on your long-term plan. The market will do what it does, but your savings habits, business plan, and family priorities will make the real difference. This Thanksgiving, as you carve turkey and share stories, take a moment to reflect not just on the year behind you, but on the years you’re building toward.

Give Thanks: S&P 500 Earnings Estimates Rising Into Year-End

Source: FactSet